الگوی تصمیم‏ گیری شرکت‏های کوچک و متوسط دانش بنیان در شرایط پیچیده و عدم قطعیت عمیق

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی اراک

2 گروه مدیریت دولتی دانشگاه پیام نور

چکیده

تغییرات سریع و پیچیدگی‏های حاکم بر دنیای امروز، فضایی متلاطم را برای کسب‏وکارهای امروزی ایجاد نموده است. در این بین، بسیاری از صاحبنظران معتقدند تحولهای فناوری در صدر فهرست تغییر و تحولهای دوران معاصر قرار می‏گیرد. شرکت‏های دانش‏بنیان به عنوان عناصر مهم در پیشرفت و به‏کارگیری فناوری، در این فضای متغیر با چالش‏های زیادی مانند کمبود اطلاعات، پدیده‏های ناشناخته و مسایل نوظهور مواجه می‏شوند که تصمیم‏گیری را برای آن‏ها بسیار مشکل میکند. این مقاله با هدف شناسایی الگوی‏های‏ تصمیم‏گیری مدیران این شرکت‏ در شرایط پیچیده انجام شده است. در این راستا، ابتدا مبانی و الگوهای غالب و اصلی تصمیم‏گیری در چارچوب الگو‏های عقلایی، اداری و شهودی  مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در ادامه، به بررسی انواع و ویژگی‏های محیط، تصمیم‏گیران و ماهیت مساله تصمیمگیری پرداخته شد. پس از استخراج متغیرهای پژوهش، مطالعه میدانی، با روش توصیفیپیمایشی در میان 130 نفر از کارشناسان و مدیران شرکت‏های دانشبنیان پارک علم و فناوری دانشگاه تهران انجام شد. نتیجه بررسی ها نشان داد که این شرکت‏ها در شرایط پیچیده از الگوی تصمیم‏گیری شهودی استفاده می کنند. همچنین مشخص شد که در این الگو ویژگی‏های تصمیم‏گیرنده و مساله تصمیم نقش موثری در نحوه تصمیم‏گیری دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Decision Making Models of Knowledge-Based Small and Medium Enterprises in Complex Situation and Deep Uncertainty

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Mashhadi Haji Ali 1
  • Mojtaba Rafiee 2
  • Mostafa Ali Miri 1
1 Arak Islamic Azad University
2 Payam-e-Noor University
چکیده [English]

Rapid changes in today's complex world have created a situation of uncertainty for businesses. In the turbulent and chaotic business environment, technology change is on the top of the list of today's major transformations. Knowledge-based enterprises as important elements of developing and using technology are facing many challenges, such as lack of information, unknown phenomena, high risks and emerging issues, where the task of decision-making is very hard. This study aims to identify patterns of decision-making to help managers make decisions in response to dynamic market changes. The decision-making principles and models are analyzed using rational and intuitive administrative decisions models. This paper examines three main features of decision-making environments, including conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, decision-maker (entrepreneur) and the nature of decision-making (knowledge). This study is of descriptive-survey type conducted in the University of Tehran Science and Technology Park with the participation of 130 experts and managers. The results show that the intuitive model is the main decision-making model in firms working in uncertain environment. Also, it is clearly indicated that in this model, the features of decision-making play an important role in decision-making quality.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • decision-making
  • deep uncertainty
  • environmental complexity
  • knowledge-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
  • decision models
[1] حکیمی پور، ابوالقاسم(1376). تصمیم گیری در مدیریت ، کاربرد فرضیه زنیره های مارکوف در تصمیم گیری مدیریت. مشهد: آستان قدس رضوی.
[2] Mitchell, R. Busenitz, l. lant, T. Mc Dougall, P. Morse, E. Smith, J. "Toward a Theory of Entrepreneurial Cognition: Rethinking the People Side of Entrepreneurship Research Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice" Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 27(2), pp. 93-104, 2002.
[3] Harris, R.” Introduction to Decision making” 1998.
[4] Brooks, M. E."Management in Decision" Management Decision, 49(5), pp.683-693, 2011.
[5] کینی،رالف ." تفکر ارزشی: راهی به سوی تصمیم گیری خلاق" ترجمه وحید وحیدی مطلق، تهران،1385
[6] Bentzen, E. Christiansen, J. K. “What Attracts Decision Makers, Attention Portfolio Meetings" Management Decision, 49(3), pp.330-349, 2011.
[7] Shane, s. Venkatarmans, S. “The Promise of Enter Preneurship as a Field of research" The Academy of Management Review, 25(1), 2000.
[8] Shane, S. "A general theory of entrepreneurship: The individual- opportunity nexus".Edward Elgar publication, 2003.
[9] Jingqin Su, “Three- dimension decision model of introducted management innovation" Journal of knowledge- based innovation in china, 3(2), pp.119- 135, 2011.
[10] شریف زاده، ابوالقاسم؛ اسدی ، علی. "کارآفرینی و توسعه دانش بنیان" تهران: جهاد دانشگاهی دانشگاه تهران، 1389.
[11] Cooper, A.”Technical entrepreneurship: what do we know?” R&D Management, 3)2(, pp. 59–64, 1973.
[12] McQueen, D. Wallmark, J.T.” One hundred major Swedish technical innovations, from 1945 to 1980” Research Policy, 20(4), pp. 325–344, 1991.
[13] Gustafsson, v. " Entrepreneurial decision – making" Edward Elgar publishing, 2006.
[14] Morgan, A. Dale, J.D. "The role of social cogntion in downsizing decisions" Journal of Managerial Psychology, 27(4), pp.383-405, 2012.
[15] Lakomski, G. Colin, W. E. “Passionate rationalism: the role of emotion decision making" Journal of Educational Administration, 48(4), pp.438 - 450, 2010.
[16] Barron, R.A. " Cognitive Mechanism In Entrepreneurship: Why and when Entrepreneurship think differently than other people" Journal of business venturing, 13(4), 275-294, 2006.
[17] Estrada, C. M. Isen, A. “Positive Affect Facilitates Integration of Information and Decreases Anchoring in Reasoning among Physicians” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72(1), pp. 117–135, 1997.
[18] Isen, A.M.” An Influence of Positive Affect on Decision Making in Complex Situations: Theoretical Issues with Practical Implications” Journal of Consumer Psychology, 11(2), pp.75–85, 2001.
[19] Lyubomirsky, S. King, L. Diener, E.” The Benefits of Frequent Positive Affect: Does Happiness Lead to Success?” Psychological Bulletin, 131(6), pp.803-855, 2005.
[20] Baron, A. Armstrong, M.” Managing Performance: Performance Management in Action” CIPD Publishing, p. 150, 2005.
[21] Bless, H. Igou, E.R. ” Mood and the use of general knowledge structures in judgment and decision making” US: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers, p.221 ,2001.
[22] Weiss, H.” Deconstructing job satisfaction: Separating evaluations, beliefs and affective experiences” Human Resource Management Review, 12(2), pp.173–194, 2002.
[23] Krause, M. Tipton, H.” Information Security Management Handbook” Fifth Edition, CRC Press, p.1323, 2004.
[24] Shepherd, D. Wiklund, J.” Knowledge-based resources, entrepreneurial orientation, and the performance of small and medium-sized businesses” Strategic Management Journal, 24(13), pp.1307–1314, 2003.
[25] Busenitz, LW. Barney, J.B. "Differences between entrepteneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision making" Journal of business venturing, 12(1), pp. 9–30, 1997. 
[26] Eisenhardt, k.m. Zbaracki, M.J. “Strategic decision making” Strategic management Journal, 13(s2), pp.17-37, 1992.
[27] کندری، اسماعیل "مدیریت سازمان­ها" ماهنامه تدبیر، سال هجدهم، شماره ،1388،177.
[28] Lyles, M. A. " Strategic Problem Formulation: Baises and Assumption Embedded in Alterative Decision making models" Journal of Management Studies, 25(2), pp. 131-145, 1988.
[29] سعادت، اسفندیار.” فرایند تصمیم گیری در سازمان” تهران: موسسه انتشارات و چاپ دانشگاه تهران، 1372.
[30] Bazerman, M. "Improving Negotiation Effectiveeness under final offer Arbitration” Journal of Applied Psychology, 67(5), pp.543-548, 1994.
[31] Beach, l.R.  "Image theory: Decision making in personal and organizational contents", England: Wiley, 1990.
[32] Alexander, S. H." Administrative Behavior" 1955.
[33] میرمحمدی، هادی. "مدل های رفتاری در تصمیم گیری" ماهنامه پیام مدیریت، شماره 28، صص. 29-47،1387.
[34] Kotter, J. P.  “Leading Change " Harvard Business School Press, 1995.
[35] خلیلی شورینی ، سیاوش. "روشهای تحقیق در علوم انسانی" تهران: یادواره کتاب، 1375.
[36] Barnard, C.I.  " The Functions of the Executive " Harward university Press,  1983.
[37] Mintzberg, H. " Planning on the left side and Managing on the right” Harvard Buusiness Review Magazine, 1976.
[38] Jackson, S.E. Dutton J.E. "Discerning Threats and Opportunities" Cornell University, 1988.
[39] Behling, O. Eckel, N. L. "Making sense out of intuition" The Executive, 5(1),  pp. 46-54, 1991.
[40] Eisenberg, D.J. “How Senior Managers Think" Harvard Business Review Magazine, 1984.
[41] Issack, T. "Intuition: An Ignored Dimension of Management" Academy of Management Review, 3(4), pp. 917-922, 1978.
[42] Dinur, A.R. "Common and un-common sense in managerial decision making under task uncertainty" management decision, 49(5), pp.694-709, 2011.
[43] Sniderman, P. Brody, R. Tetlock, P. “Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology” Cambridge University Press, p. 19, 1991.
[44] Payne, J. Bettman, J. Johnson, E. “The Adaptive Decision Maker” Cambridge University Press, 1993.
[45] Mintz, A. “Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making” New York: Palgrave, 2002.
[46] Abelson, R. Levi, A. "Decision Making and Decision Theory" The Handbook of social Psychology, 3rd edition, New York: Random House, 1985.
[47] Harvey, O. J. Hunt, D. E. Schroder, H. M. “Conceptual Systems and Personality Organization” New York: Wiley, p.56, 1961.
[48] Klein, J. Weiss, I. "Towards an integration of intuitive and systematic decision making in education" Journal of Educational Administration, 45(3), pp.265 – 277, 2007.
[49] Daft, R.L. “Organization Theory and Design” New York: West Publishing Co., p. 146, 1989.
[50] O'Reilly, C. "The Use of Information in Organization Decision Making, a model and some propositions" Research in Organizational Behavior, 5, , pp.103-139, 1983.
[51] DeCharms, R.C.” Reading and controlling human brain activation using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging”. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 11(11), pp.473-481, 2007.
[52] Gold, B.” Approaches to accelerating product and process development” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 4(2), pp.81–88, 1987.
[53] Hertwig, R. Gigerenzer, G. Hoffrage, U. ” The reiteration effect in hindsight bias”, Psychological Review, 104(1), pp.194-202, 1997.
[54] Cheng, m. luckett, p. Schulz, A.”The effect of cognitive style diversity on decision- making days: An empirical analysis in the context of a complex task” Behavioral reseach in accounting, 15, 2003.
[55] Gilovich, T.” The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences” Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), pp.295–314, 1985.
[56] Gigerenzer, G. “Reckoning with risk. Learning to live with uncertainty” London: Penguin Books, 2002.
[57] Hammond, J.S. Keeney, R. L. Raiffa, H. "The Hidden Traps in Decision Making" Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2001.
[58]  Slovic, P. “Cigarette smokers: rational actors or rational fools” Smoking: risk, perception and policy, pp. 97–124, 2001.
[59] Tronnberg, C.C. Hemlin, S. ” Banker’s lending decision making a psychological approach” managerial finance, 38 (11), pp.1032 - 1047, 2012.
[60] Allardice, R.”One Half Revolution in of Orientation of Implication of Decision Making” US Air Force, Maxwell, 1998.
[61] Harrison, K. Hoberg, G. “Setting the invironmental agenda in Canada and U.S” Canadian Journal of political science, 24(1), pp. 3-27, 1991.
[62] Meczynska, A. kmieciak, R. Michna, A. zok, L. " A decision support method for poorly structured problems in school management” Baltic Journal of Management, 9(1), pp.91 – 112, 2013.